Even if you have not been paying attention to Zimbabwe lately, you were still bedazzled by the ongoing political drama. President Mugabe is confirming every low expectation the people of Zimbabwe have of him. In the end you were probably left wondering what the people of Zimbabwe should really do next;
Defeat Mugabe to rebuild Zimbabwe, or rebuild Zimbabwe to defeat Mugabe?
Nothing succinctly sums up Zimbabweans’ quandary more than that. It’s not just the main opposition –MDC-T under siege by Mugabe, it’s the whole nation. It is a worrisome dilemma.
What happens if MDC continues to play fair and square, courteous and by the rules? It doesn’t matter; the cobra will still bite you whether you call it cobra or Mr Snake. Mugabe will always be Mugabe – the master of political deception.
Speaking of snakes, Mugabe is a snake oil salesman who knows how to handle African diplomacy (or more precisely – African dictatorship). Whenever there is a crisis (artificially created by him in the first place), he does not cringe. In spite of his casualness, he is quick to tell the world that the crisis is a Zimbabwean problem which Zimbabweans themselves must solve.
Of course ‘Zimbabweans’ refer to Mugabe and his kleptocrats. We all know the solution is State-sponsored violence, which is an integral part of Zanu PF existence. The army, police and CIO have been a cohesive force of terrorizing the people of Zimbabwe and for cowing activists and the opposition into submission. In addition, the youth militias are not just a bunch of random thugs, they are on State payroll. Zanu PF believes in freedom of speech and nonviolence; but only for itself.
Mugabe’s stratagem zeros in on a dragging approach, no matter how much it costs the nation. Reports indicate that as SADC’s two-week deadline (requiring outstanding GPA issues to be addressed) looms, Mugabe has predictably done absolutely nothing to remedy his violations of GPA terms; Whether it’s reversing his arbitrary appointment of Zimbabwe’s most inept and thoroughly discredited Reserve Bank Governor in history –Gideon Gono, or removal of the excessively obsequious Attorney General, an enabler of Mugabe’s transgressions. Similarly, cessation of violence and restoration of rule of law remain a pie in the sky.
After all, how can Mugabe budge on the removal of AG Johannes Tomana given his critical ‘State assignments’ including the most recent one- to ‘convict’ Roy Bennett, regardless of the treason case’s hollowness? It is no coincidence that the judge in question has refused to recuse himself after massive conflict of interest was unearthed, otherwise the whole plot would have to be re-choreographed and its frivolity exposed.
With the same token, Gono bankrolls Mugabe’s ‘projects’ and stashes his cash in Asia. In any case he stands to resume his job as money-printing CEO as Mugabe intensifies efforts of resuscitating the Zimbabwe dollar. From their adulterated economic perspective which has long-ignored economics 101, the Zimbabwe dollar is necessary for economic activity which creates revenue (in hard currency) for the State. They need it to buy US dollars from the ‘market’. Of course today they have the audacity to perpetuate the grand delusion that sanctions caused Zimbabwe’s economic ruin.
What a nostalgic feeling they have for the black-market economy that created fly-by-night millionaires! People worry about hyperinflation and zeroes re-emerging? Well, “As monetary authorities” Gono, will make another guarantee as he did in July 2008; “This time, we will make sure that those zeros that would come knocking on the Governor’s window will not return. They are going for good.” Did anyone believe that?
As you saw, after MDC dis-disengaged, Zimbabwe was temporarily but deceptively peaceful again in spite of scattered incidence of violence in the aftermath of SADC’s intervention (whose outcome is hardly consequential). For the umpteenth time, Zanu PF and the fringy MDC-M politicians told us how they now want to work in brotherhood for Zimbabwe’s sake. Mutambara’s gibberish must be ignored. It’s like taking the advice of the fox on how to protect chickens. The paradox of it all is that violence actually increased to include incarceration of activists and ZCTU leadership.
What looked like a promise of hope is suddenly morphing into a promise of peril. When the Global Political Agreement appended a National Healing and Reconciliation clause, many of us were convinced that it had effectively removed the liability of possible misapprehensions about future calls retribution. It is especially true considering the egregious human rights abuses committed by Mugabe and his ilk. The clause was a de facto amnesty for them.
But then again, at Independence Mugabe backpedalled on his own terms having pleaded with white Zimbabweans, imploring them to stand shoulder to shoulder with black people in building a strong Zimbabwe. As the possibility of Zimbabwe having an inclusive government was gathering momentum, far-fetched political punditry quickly predicted that Mugabe would welcome the opportunity to finally exit the political stage. They were wrong, Mugabe is drunk with power.
The problem is; even if Mugabe were to drop dead today, Zimbabwe’s political quagmire will not end. In fact it is likely to degenerate. Can you imagine what will happen given all the Zanu PF sharks jostling for power? Mugabe’s mess will be with us for some time, long after he is gone. He used it to further his politics of patronage. Mentioning succession planning is a mortal sin in Zanu PF.
Mugabe made sure that every Zanu PF shark’s political future was entirely in his hands. Their promotion, demotion or excommunication depends on him. In a way he acts as the magnet that holds the party together. His absence means an implosion and the demise of Zanu PF as we know it. In his absence it will take quite some time for Zanu PF to rediscover its mediocrity.
The problem is that Mugabe is surrounded by people of his mold. Consider Didymus Mutasa – the man cursed with the mind of Idi Amin, being one day at the helm of Zimbabwe one day, then you begin to see that Mugabe is a novice of a devil. His mind is genocidal. Not to mention other politicians in Zanu PF, the Army and CIO. Zanu PF relies on thugs for intellectual guidance.
“We would be better off with only 6 million people, with our own people who supported the liberation struggle. We don’t want these extra people,” said Didymus in 2002. (What a cool name!)
But there are also many pieces to the ever confounding imbroglio; it’s not just the political duplicity that is affecting people, it’s also the emotional toll Mugabe is exacting on Zimbabweans. We have an entire generation whose lives have been shattered. Political violence and lawlessness are still rampant.
South Africa has gained immensely from Zimbabwe’s troubles; cheap labour, extension of South Africa’s markets as Zimbabwe became a de facto province of South Africa. The most unsettling being the emigration of most of Zimbabwe’s best brains. Can you imagine individuals like Strive Masiyiwa, Mutumwa Mawere, Mthuli Ncube, etc, making South Africa their permanent home and nearly giving up their birthrights due to political persecution? But of course, it’s a scenario preferred by Zimbabwe’s politicians. The majority of colleagues I went to University with (in Zimbabwe)have resettled in South Africa.
As xenophobic attacks spiked again this week, many of us were reminded of the evils of Mugabe regime. These attacks are a result of Mugabe-induced displacements of our brothers and sisters. In fact I observed a moment of silence at the sight of the suffering, seeing mothers carrying kids on their backs running away from marauding xenophobes raring to kill as they did last year in Johannesburg. They are being brutally attacked by fellow black South Africans. Zuma must be ashamed of his dithering.
It takes politicians with no hearts to afford a nap when your own people are in such destitution, sleeping in foxholes yet you have the audacity to say we are independent. These are Zimbabweans who have run away from Mugabe and his thugs. Like most of us, we are not in the Diaspora because we want to be here, we are here because of Mugabe. The day that he becomes harmless, we will go back (quickly).
Pretoria has also amassed massive political capital. Isn’t if fun acting king-maker and then peacemaker? In the article “Indictment of Thabo Mbeki” (September 2008) I wrote “The true barometer of the success of his so-called ‘quiet diplomacy’ and “African solutions” should have resulted in the long-overdue departure of the octogenarian dictator.” Mugabe lost an election, Mbeki rewarded him. If SADC and the African Union had stood up to Mugabe, Zimbabwe would never be such a pariah.
As usual, Mugabe bullies them. On June 26 2008, as the African Union Summit in Egypt was gathering momentum, Mugabe threatened African leaders to stay out of the Zimbabwe crisis stating; “I know some people are gearing themselves for an attack on Zimbabwe. I want to see any country which will raise its finger in the AU, our elections have been free.” But it was the same Mugabe who earlier issued a fatwa that a ‘mere X’ remove him.
While in Rome this week, Mugabe sputtered in feigned rage (as per trademark), the equivalent of ‘f-bomb’ tirades against the West. Pulling spectacular tantrums, Mugabe attacked the “neocolonialist enemies’ for blocking Zimbabwe’s access to world food markets. What an oddity! Markets for maize? The last time Zimbabwe exported food was before the self-destructive farm seizures back in 2000. Of course it’s convenient now just to heap scorn on other nations for our failures.
Zimbabwe’s struggles have to do with at least meeting subsistence threshold. Isn’t there a looming widespread drought as before? Unless the same ‘neocolonialist enemies’ through their NGO’s come to our help with food just as they did to stop the cholera hemorrhage, people will die.
Maybe Mugabe was referring to international markets sanctioned against Gono’s Flowers or milk exports from his wife’s Gushungo Farms recently. Now we know that sanctions are biting them (in their behind!). How many children are going hungry or are malnourished in Zimbabwe who desperately need that milk? If these people were patriotic enough and really sensitive to the people’s plight, shouldn’t they feed the hungry given the multiple farms they now have? A recent report indicated that nearly half of Zimbabwe’s children are malnourished while thirty percent suffer from diseases related to nutrition deficiencies.
It’s about them and their sons and daughters, nephews and nieces. That explains why they are resisting Zimbabwe’s democratization so vehemently. This week, the Swiss government seized assets worth US$350 million belonging to Abba Abacha, one of Sani Abacha’s three sons. US$700 that was stashed in Swiss Banks has already been returned to Nigeria by Swiss authorities. It is part of the US$2.2 billion looted by Nigeria’s former President Abacha, a vicious dictator. The moral of the story is that after all the misery he caused to his people (including hanging Ken Saro-Wiwa) , HE DIED. Someday, Zimbabwe’s day of reckoning is also coming.
The irony of sanctions is really underwhelming and largely misunderstood. Zanu PF will continue to feign moral outrage and instigate violence to prevent the lifting of sanctions and then turn around to criticize MDC for not lifting sanctions. That will give them an excuse for not doing anything. In other words even constitutional overhaul will move forward if sanctions are removed otherwise it’s the Kariba Draft. Even UN cannot enter Zimbabwe to assess human rights situation unless sanctions are removed. But clearly these are targeted sanctions. For Zanu PF no issue, big or small, is immune to political exploitation.
It’s like the US Republican Party which has openly declared that it wants President Obama to fail.You can see how Republican lawmakers consistently oppose every bill no matter how good it is for the country.
So is Zimbabwe marching into total oblivion? That’s an overstatement. We have a democratically elected Prime Minister with very high approval from the vast majority of Zimbabweans. In spite of all the life threatening machinations presented by Mugabe et al, he remains fully competent to lead (with grace). As embodied in its illustrious and distinguished Speaker of Parliament -Honorable Lovemore Moyo, Zimbabwe Parliament is bleeding with talent. There are many capable men and women who should be forcefully moving Zimbabwe’s reform agenda forward instead of ‘being away on leave.’
This is not an attempt to sell a narrative that MDC should get a free pass. But people have to understand what MDC(T) is dealing with. It’s very easy to blame MDC for the impasse -a common phenomenon I always find ridiculous from all facets, especially from those unbothered about the reality of the birth pains of democratic transition or undoing Zimbabwe’s 29-year old dictatorship. Zimbabwe’s choices are limited. What about China promising Zimbabwe US$8 billion? Well, looks like China owns everybody these days (US debt to China is over $1 trillion). But remember Chinese Money – Zimbabwe’s Ultimate Catch 22. (www.nationalvision.wordpress.com)
Of course MDC needs a new aggressive strategy in dealing with Mugabe and a better job of expectation management. For example, the recent passage of Finance Reform Bill, that partly incapacitates Gono from running the Reserve Bank as Gonomugabe Incorporated is a commendable achievement. It’s a product of hard work at the Biti-led Finance Ministry. Amnesty clause is no big deal; it’s about moving the country forward. Likewise other Ministries like Home Affairs and Information can also push vigorously for such kinds of reforms. These constitute pressing national priorities.
In the province of diplomacy, MDC’s going back to SADC and AU – the GPA guarantors, is a necessary exercise even though the results come in dribs and drabs. With the world in turmoil and economies constipated globally, no one really cares about the Zimbabwe situation. It’s a long march for change. But Zimbabwe heal thyself, the emperor has no clothes!
